Support composition: the coalition against everyone else
One bar per institute, rescaled so that everyone who chose a list adds up to 100%. Which list belongs to which bloc is our call, not a figure from the filings. Answers that are not a list — undecided, not voting, and “another party” — are left out, even where the institute published them, so they count towards neither side.
Raw support as filed, by list and by institute
The date is the day the survey was run, not the day it was filed with the Committee.
What we do and do not claim
- Every figure can be traced to the page, table, row and cell of the document it came from. A value that cannot be traced is shown as missing, never estimated, and anything we calculated ourselves is labelled as such.
- Gaps are shown, not hidden. When a filing lacks something, that describes the published document — it is not a finding that the institute broke a rule. The Committee publishes filings as it receives them and does not check them, and some annexes may not appear in the public PDF.
- We do not adjust columns to agree, and we publish no average. Each institute calculates its percentages from a different group of respondents, so two figures are fully comparable only when that group is the same — which is why every column says what its percentages are of.